Which cities depend most on Bolsa Família — The X-ray of economic dependence

Cities with the highest % of beneficiaries in the population:

1. Pau Brasil (BA): 39.6% (Almost 4 out of every 10 residents).
2. Serrano do Maranhão (MA): 38.8%.
3. Cachoeira Grande (MA): 37.9%.
4. Pedrinhas (SE): 37.7%.
5. Rodelas (BA): 37.3%.

The case of Pau Brasil (BA): With an HDI of 0.536, the city exemplifies the direct correlation between low social infrastructure and the vital need for income transfer for the survival of local commerce.

When the Benefit is the GDP

The most alarming finding of the 2026 analysis is the impact of Bolsa Família on produced wealth (GDP). In some localities, the program is not merely aid, but the economy itself.

In Cachoeira Grande (MA), half of all financial circulation in the municipality comes from the program. Without these resources, sectors such as pharmacies and small markets would face immediate collapse.

Regional Inequality: The "Two Brazils"

The distribution of resources reaffirms the socioeconomic gap between regions:

• Northeast: Concentrates 46.8% of the country's beneficiaries (16.2% of its population).
• South: Has the lowest dependence, with only 4.2% of the population receiving the aid.
• Southeast: Although it has a low percentage (6.3%), it concentrates the largest absolute financial volume due to the population density of metropolises like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Absolute Volume: The Metropolises

In major capitals, the impact is measured in hundreds of millions of reais per month, sustaining consumption in the peripheries:

1. São Paulo (SP): R$ 418 million/month (842 thousand beneficiaries).
2. Rio de Janeiro (RJ): R$ 286 million/month (621 thousand beneficiaries).
3. Fortaleza (CE): R$ 188 million/month (384 thousand beneficiaries).

Highlight: Nova Iguaçu (RJ) presents 15.3% of its population in the program, an index much higher than the national average for large urban centers, raising an alert for vulnerability in Baixada Fluminense.

Insight for Business and Investments

The density of Bolsa Família beneficiaries serves as a consumption profile indicator for companies:

• High Dependence: Markets focused on essential goods (basic food items, generic medicines and lottery services) find resilient demand and constant flow.
• Low Dependence: Municipalities with low % of beneficiaries and high HDI are ideal for value-added services, such as gyms, aesthetics and technology.

Methodology: Analysis based on data from the Transparency Portal (January/2026), IBGE municipal GDP (adjusted) and 2022 Census. Conducted by Score de Cidades.